* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ONE EP012014 05/23/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 43 48 59 69 76 78 76 75 72 67 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 43 48 59 69 76 78 76 75 72 67 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 37 39 44 49 55 58 60 61 61 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 11 10 7 7 8 11 14 17 15 10 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -5 -6 -5 -5 0 -2 1 0 0 4 6 SHEAR DIR 178 160 154 143 137 150 175 169 194 175 179 185 211 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 155 155 155 154 154 154 154 153 153 153 149 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.7 -52.1 -52.7 -53.0 -51.7 -52.3 -51.9 -52.2 -51.8 -52.0 -51.3 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 80 79 76 74 74 70 73 73 71 73 74 72 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 13 13 13 14 16 19 22 24 24 24 24 23 850 MB ENV VOR 24 32 37 34 27 36 33 42 36 37 27 26 22 200 MB DIV 102 115 120 92 78 78 61 87 64 73 94 104 66 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 2 3 LAND (KM) 989 997 1006 1016 1026 1039 1063 1067 1075 1080 1063 1047 1021 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 10.9 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.4 11.4 11.7 12.0 12.2 12.4 12.9 13.7 LONG(DEG W) 108.3 108.6 108.9 109.2 109.5 110.1 110.5 111.0 111.5 111.8 111.8 112.1 112.5 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 2 1 2 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 27 29 30 31 33 37 39 43 45 46 46 43 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 26. 29. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 15. 19. 18. 18. 17. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 18. 29. 39. 46. 48. 46. 45. 42. 37. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012014 ONE 05/23/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 101.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 49% is 3.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 17% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012014 ONE 05/23/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##