* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AMANDA EP012014 05/24/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 52 58 66 70 81 84 85 79 75 67 59 51 V (KT) LAND 45 52 58 66 70 81 84 85 79 75 67 59 51 V (KT) LGE mod 45 51 57 63 68 75 80 81 79 76 70 62 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 5 8 11 7 17 15 26 20 20 16 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -3 -1 -2 -3 -3 -1 0 2 8 4 5 SHEAR DIR 144 122 103 134 147 184 180 174 176 192 203 210 211 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.2 27.8 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 155 155 155 154 154 152 152 151 144 139 136 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.8 -52.9 -52.4 -51.7 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -51.6 -51.9 -51.3 -51.9 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 77 73 70 68 67 68 68 69 69 67 66 62 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 15 18 18 21 21 23 22 22 20 19 17 850 MB ENV VOR 43 40 33 37 37 35 37 36 39 32 26 20 36 200 MB DIV 121 108 70 66 78 65 60 77 109 89 82 51 38 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 2 1 0 0 0 2 3 5 2 1 LAND (KM) 997 1005 1007 1016 1026 1049 1051 1041 1016 977 932 875 813 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.3 11.5 11.7 11.8 11.9 12.2 12.4 12.8 13.5 14.6 15.3 15.8 LONG(DEG W) 108.9 109.3 109.7 110.1 110.5 111.0 111.4 111.5 111.6 111.8 112.2 112.2 111.9 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 2 2 2 3 5 5 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 30 33 36 39 42 44 45 46 46 40 26 18 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 20. 20. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 8. 9. 12. 10. 10. 8. 6. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 13. 21. 25. 36. 39. 40. 34. 30. 22. 14. 6. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012014 AMANDA 05/24/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 66% is 5.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 58% is 6.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 50% is 8.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 47% is 11.4 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012014 AMANDA 05/24/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##