* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AMANDA EP012014 05/24/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 57 64 71 77 85 83 82 73 65 54 44 34 V (KT) LAND 50 57 64 71 77 85 83 82 73 65 54 44 34 V (KT) LGE mod 50 56 62 68 72 78 80 79 73 66 57 49 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 8 10 8 9 14 16 19 19 18 23 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -2 0 -1 0 3 5 8 7 7 4 0 SHEAR DIR 137 121 140 148 152 177 198 196 215 209 229 233 232 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.3 27.6 27.0 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 155 155 154 154 153 152 150 145 138 131 128 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -52.5 -51.9 -52.3 -52.0 -52.2 -51.7 -51.5 -51.2 -51.6 -51.6 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 72 68 66 64 64 65 64 62 61 63 58 56 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 16 18 20 20 22 20 22 20 19 16 14 11 850 MB ENV VOR 38 33 39 44 38 39 41 43 33 35 29 24 25 200 MB DIV 109 90 78 79 78 75 58 84 70 89 72 21 7 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 3 3 3 5 2 LAND (KM) 1011 1020 1032 1045 1058 1059 1056 1023 970 924 843 736 645 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.5 11.6 11.7 11.8 12.1 12.4 12.9 13.6 14.5 15.6 16.6 17.4 LONG(DEG W) 109.4 109.9 110.3 110.7 111.0 111.4 111.7 111.8 111.8 112.0 112.2 112.2 112.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 3 4 5 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 33 36 39 42 43 45 46 44 39 29 14 6 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 17. 16. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 7. 10. 6. 6. 1. -1. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 21. 27. 35. 33. 32. 23. 15. 4. -6. -16. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012014 AMANDA 05/24/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 68% is 5.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 62% is 7.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 55% is 8.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 55% is 13.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012014 AMANDA 05/24/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##