* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AMANDA EP012014 05/24/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 73 81 87 94 100 97 90 79 67 55 43 31 V (KT) LAND 65 73 81 87 94 100 97 90 79 67 55 43 31 V (KT) LGE mod 65 73 80 86 91 98 100 96 86 74 62 52 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 8 6 4 15 21 21 20 23 22 23 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 5 5 9 5 4 4 SHEAR DIR 126 113 103 108 118 152 160 191 197 189 201 201 225 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.6 28.1 27.6 27.1 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 155 154 154 154 154 151 147 142 138 133 127 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.3 -51.7 -52.2 -52.2 -51.8 -51.9 -51.1 -51.5 -51.2 -51.8 -51.7 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 69 66 65 64 65 66 67 64 64 60 55 49 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 22 22 22 23 25 23 22 21 19 15 13 9 850 MB ENV VOR 32 42 45 39 36 41 41 30 31 27 18 25 10 200 MB DIV 88 101 86 49 51 42 81 67 94 69 41 28 9 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1027 1036 1048 1054 1061 1046 1017 977 934 887 824 722 596 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.4 11.5 11.6 11.7 12.1 12.7 13.4 14.1 14.8 15.6 16.6 17.8 LONG(DEG W) 109.7 110.1 110.4 110.7 110.9 111.2 111.5 111.7 111.8 111.8 111.7 111.7 111.8 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 3 2 3 4 4 3 3 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 35 37 39 41 42 45 46 41 34 26 18 7 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 6. 4. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 6. 5. 3. 0. -4. -8. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 16. 22. 29. 35. 32. 25. 14. 2. -10. -22. -34. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012014 AMANDA 05/24/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 68% is 4.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 60% is 7.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 60% is 9.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 60% is 14.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012014 AMANDA 05/24/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##