* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AMANDA EP012014 05/24/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 77 82 87 92 91 89 78 65 52 41 30 22 V (KT) LAND 70 77 82 87 92 91 89 78 65 52 41 30 22 V (KT) LGE mod 70 76 82 86 89 92 90 84 74 63 52 44 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 9 10 12 21 20 23 24 26 21 18 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -1 1 7 7 5 2 2 0 SHEAR DIR 124 124 137 155 170 168 172 190 194 200 206 208 215 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.5 27.8 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 154 154 154 154 152 147 140 135 132 129 127 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.8 -52.2 -52.4 -51.8 -52.1 -51.5 -51.2 -51.0 -51.4 -51.5 -51.6 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 66 65 65 65 67 67 67 66 65 61 56 50 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 21 21 22 23 22 23 21 19 16 14 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 42 45 40 33 36 40 42 38 38 33 29 39 19 200 MB DIV 84 92 75 61 71 69 92 87 97 73 45 25 7 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 1 5 1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1049 1054 1060 1051 1043 1012 946 878 817 781 724 669 620 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.4 11.5 11.7 11.9 12.5 13.3 14.3 15.3 16.0 16.5 17.0 17.5 LONG(DEG W) 110.1 110.4 110.6 110.8 110.9 111.2 111.2 111.3 111.4 111.5 111.3 111.3 111.5 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 2 2 3 4 5 5 5 3 3 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 36 38 40 42 44 46 45 34 23 14 9 6 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 1. -1. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 2. 4. 0. -2. -6. -8. -12. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 12. 17. 22. 21. 19. 8. -5. -18. -29. -40. -48. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012014 AMANDA 05/24/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 50% is 3.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 42% is 4.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 33% is 5.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 33% is 8.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012014 AMANDA 05/24/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##