* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AMANDA EP012014 05/25/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 92 96 98 97 92 83 70 59 50 40 35 28 V (KT) LAND 85 92 96 98 97 92 83 70 59 50 40 35 28 V (KT) LGE mod 85 92 96 98 98 93 85 75 64 55 46 40 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 13 13 17 22 23 25 28 22 21 19 16 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 2 1 2 1 4 3 6 8 7 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 148 157 170 174 174 195 198 210 204 203 186 196 159 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.6 28.1 27.8 27.5 27.2 27.1 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 154 154 153 152 148 142 138 135 132 130 132 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -52.3 -51.8 -51.7 -51.8 -51.0 -51.3 -50.9 -51.6 -50.9 -51.4 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 4 5 6 700-500 MB RH 65 65 66 66 70 73 72 72 71 70 67 61 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 22 22 22 22 23 23 21 21 21 20 21 19 850 MB ENV VOR 48 44 39 37 40 40 39 35 35 39 35 38 53 200 MB DIV 86 98 68 62 47 81 87 97 99 69 69 36 33 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -1 -1 0 0 0 2 2 0 2 1 0 LAND (KM) 1054 1051 1049 1034 1020 970 901 854 828 802 739 713 690 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.7 11.9 12.2 12.4 13.1 14.1 14.9 15.4 15.8 16.4 16.6 16.6 LONG(DEG W) 110.5 110.8 111.0 111.1 111.2 111.3 111.4 111.5 111.6 111.6 111.5 111.3 110.9 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 3 3 4 5 4 2 2 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 39 42 44 45 46 45 36 27 21 16 9 8 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -4. -7. -11. -15. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -12. -13. -12. -11. -11. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -1. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 11. 13. 12. 7. -2. -15. -26. -35. -45. -50. -57. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012014 AMANDA 05/25/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 25% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 23% is 5.4 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012014 AMANDA 05/25/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##