* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AMANDA EP012014 05/25/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 133 138 136 130 116 92 77 65 53 44 34 24 V (KT) LAND 120 133 138 136 130 116 92 77 65 53 44 34 24 V (KT) LGE mod 120 131 132 128 123 110 97 82 69 58 49 43 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 11 17 16 19 27 19 15 16 16 14 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 8 9 8 4 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 167 169 185 170 172 170 203 205 182 186 172 170 158 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.5 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.3 27.1 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 154 154 153 152 146 142 139 137 134 132 132 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -51.7 -52.1 -51.4 -51.3 -51.4 -51.5 -51.6 -51.4 -51.5 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 66 67 68 70 72 71 70 69 68 62 56 49 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 24 24 24 23 25 22 23 23 21 21 20 16 850 MB ENV VOR 46 44 41 48 44 46 40 41 40 40 54 46 44 200 MB DIV 89 73 56 59 46 102 84 100 90 65 33 21 30 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 0 -1 0 1 4 2 3 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1063 1055 1047 1029 1012 969 910 869 847 807 744 669 589 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.8 12.0 12.3 12.5 13.3 14.2 14.8 15.1 15.6 16.3 16.8 17.1 LONG(DEG W) 110.8 111.0 111.1 111.2 111.2 111.5 111.6 111.6 111.6 111.5 111.3 110.8 110.1 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 3 3 3 5 3 2 2 3 3 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 42 43 45 45 46 43 34 28 24 19 11 8 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -19. -27. -34. -41. -47. -51. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -6. -8. -12. -14. -13. -10. -8. -7. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 14. 20. 21. 18. 10. 2. -2. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 4. 0. 2. 2. -1. 0. -2. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 13. 18. 16. 10. -4. -28. -43. -55. -67. -76. -86. -96. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012014 AMANDA 05/25/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 50.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 46% is 3.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012014 AMANDA 05/25/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##