* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AMANDA EP012014 05/25/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 135 147 148 143 137 116 92 73 58 49 38 28 22 V (KT) LAND 135 147 148 143 137 116 92 73 58 49 38 28 22 V (KT) LGE mod 135 143 141 135 128 114 100 85 70 58 50 45 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 11 14 14 21 22 23 17 11 9 9 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -1 2 2 8 4 3 1 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 138 177 169 159 148 157 196 189 210 189 185 136 156 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.7 28.3 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.1 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 154 154 153 149 145 138 136 135 134 132 130 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -51.4 -51.9 -51.1 -51.7 -51.0 -51.6 -51.6 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 68 67 69 66 70 72 68 67 60 56 50 45 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 24 24 24 23 25 24 23 22 21 20 17 14 11 850 MB ENV VOR 49 49 55 48 50 48 34 35 28 39 32 29 34 200 MB DIV 75 68 14 5 64 90 69 76 60 57 11 17 4 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -1 -2 -1 0 2 3 0 0 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1074 1060 1046 1015 986 923 874 835 809 757 679 597 518 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 11.9 12.1 12.5 12.9 13.8 14.6 15.3 15.7 16.1 16.5 17.1 17.8 LONG(DEG W) 111.1 111.2 111.2 111.3 111.3 111.4 111.5 111.6 111.6 111.3 110.7 110.2 109.8 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 3 4 5 4 4 2 2 3 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 43 44 45 46 46 39 30 22 17 14 12 9 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -11. -20. -30. -40. -48. -56. -63. -68. -71. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -13. -10. -7. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 15. 21. 21. 17. 7. -1. -6. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -9. -13. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 12. 13. 8. 2. -19. -43. -62. -77. -86. -97.-107.-113. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012014 AMANDA 05/25/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 50.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 18.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012014 AMANDA 05/25/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##