* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AMANDA EP012014 05/25/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 130 128 122 115 109 93 77 61 48 41 32 23 19 V (KT) LAND 130 128 122 115 109 93 77 61 48 41 32 23 19 V (KT) LGE mod 130 127 120 112 105 91 78 65 54 45 39 35 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 18 20 20 20 21 22 21 18 14 6 15 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 2 1 0 3 3 1 2 0 -2 -7 -5 SHEAR DIR 192 192 189 174 167 179 193 197 205 209 167 179 205 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.3 27.6 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.7 26.5 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 154 152 150 145 138 133 131 129 127 125 123 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.0 -52.3 -52.0 -51.5 -51.7 -51.4 -51.5 -51.1 -51.2 -51.2 -51.4 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 66 67 68 71 73 70 71 69 67 61 57 52 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 25 25 24 24 25 25 24 23 21 22 20 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR 43 50 47 44 47 37 39 32 33 49 52 48 35 200 MB DIV 59 31 24 63 118 87 99 79 65 23 11 8 -5 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -3 -2 0 2 6 3 5 1 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1046 1020 995 966 938 883 815 750 680 607 545 488 433 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.4 12.7 13.2 13.6 14.6 15.6 16.3 16.9 17.5 18.0 18.5 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 111.2 111.2 111.2 111.3 111.4 111.6 111.6 111.5 111.3 110.9 110.3 110.0 109.9 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 5 5 5 4 3 3 4 3 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 45 45 46 45 41 30 19 10 6 4 5 3 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -18. -29. -38. -47. -55. -61. -66. -69. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -8. -12. -15. -20. -20. -19. -15. -12. -9. -9. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -5. -3. -6. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -8. -15. -21. -37. -53. -69. -82. -89. -98.-107.-111. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012014 AMANDA 05/25/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012014 AMANDA 05/25/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##