* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AMANDA EP012014 05/26/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 125 116 107 100 94 76 64 51 43 35 27 22 18 V (KT) LAND 125 116 107 100 94 76 64 51 43 35 27 22 18 V (KT) LGE mod 125 117 109 101 94 82 69 57 47 41 37 34 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 24 23 24 21 26 22 16 12 8 8 4 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -1 -2 2 3 4 2 3 -3 -3 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 191 190 192 183 166 200 203 208 209 216 170 155 135 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.0 27.4 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 152 150 148 142 135 131 128 126 125 124 123 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.3 -52.2 -51.5 -51.1 -52.0 -51.2 -51.7 -51.1 -51.8 -51.4 -52.0 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 68 67 70 70 73 70 70 68 67 64 58 55 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 24 21 22 23 24 20 20 19 18 17 15 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 51 47 47 52 54 45 41 33 45 49 58 51 48 200 MB DIV 61 41 64 107 110 102 99 58 71 20 13 11 6 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 1 1 4 4 1 0 0 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1034 1013 992 962 933 871 797 708 639 589 550 525 505 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.8 13.1 13.6 14.0 15.0 15.9 16.7 17.3 17.7 18.0 18.2 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 111.4 111.5 111.6 111.7 111.7 111.8 111.7 111.6 111.4 111.1 110.8 110.6 110.7 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 46 46 44 41 36 24 14 6 4 3 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 135 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -6. -8. -16. -27. -36. -44. -52. -58. -62. -66. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -10. -15. -19. -24. -24. -21. -16. -12. -9. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 0. -5. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -18. -25. -31. -49. -61. -74. -82. -90. -98.-103.-107. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012014 AMANDA 05/26/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012014 AMANDA 05/26/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##