* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AMANDA EP012014 05/26/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 111 102 93 85 70 53 43 34 24 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 120 111 102 93 85 70 53 43 34 24 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 120 112 105 97 90 76 63 52 44 38 34 31 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 25 23 23 21 25 22 20 15 13 10 6 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 -2 2 5 4 5 0 0 0 -1 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 182 184 181 184 188 211 217 226 218 225 242 231 228 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.2 27.6 27.2 27.0 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.4 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 150 148 144 138 133 129 129 129 126 122 123 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.5 -51.9 -51.4 -51.5 -51.3 -51.6 -51.8 -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.7 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 67 68 69 68 66 65 61 52 43 38 36 32 31 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 24 23 22 21 20 16 16 14 11 7 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 48 50 57 54 50 42 38 32 45 40 40 28 33 200 MB DIV 72 79 90 103 84 91 59 57 26 5 0 0 10 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 1 1 8 1 1 0 1 0 0 3 LAND (KM) 1009 985 962 938 917 840 751 719 706 655 567 534 550 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.2 13.6 14.1 14.6 15.6 16.4 16.7 16.8 17.2 17.9 18.2 18.1 LONG(DEG W) 111.5 111.6 111.7 111.9 112.0 112.1 112.0 112.0 111.9 111.6 111.1 111.1 111.3 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 5 5 4 3 1 1 4 3 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 46 43 40 34 28 15 8 5 5 4 3 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -15. -25. -34. -41. -48. -53. -58. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -5. -10. -15. -18. -23. -23. -21. -16. -13. -11. -9. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -9. -12. -16. -21. -24. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -18. -27. -34. -50. -67. -77. -86. -96.-106.-114.-116. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012014 AMANDA 05/26/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012014 AMANDA 05/26/14 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##