* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AMANDA EP012014 05/26/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 113 105 96 87 71 60 47 40 32 25 20 18 V (KT) LAND 120 113 105 96 87 71 60 47 40 32 25 20 18 V (KT) LGE mod 120 114 107 99 91 76 62 52 44 39 36 34 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 26 24 23 22 20 14 10 7 9 7 7 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 3 8 7 9 9 10 2 0 0 0 4 SHEAR DIR 174 179 174 186 203 220 208 213 216 188 177 142 140 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.3 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 151 148 145 140 137 134 135 134 133 133 130 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.8 -51.4 -51.5 -51.4 -50.9 -51.2 -50.9 -51.6 -51.5 -52.0 -51.8 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 70 69 69 68 68 66 64 59 56 50 48 44 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 24 25 25 22 21 20 21 18 18 16 15 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR 50 56 56 55 43 41 33 33 41 43 43 38 43 200 MB DIV 92 112 61 75 77 89 64 37 16 5 -2 7 -16 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 992 966 941 919 897 828 785 754 729 701 657 630 604 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.6 14.0 14.5 15.0 15.8 16.2 16.5 16.7 16.9 17.2 17.4 17.7 LONG(DEG W) 111.6 111.7 111.8 112.0 112.1 112.4 112.4 112.4 112.3 112.1 111.7 111.5 111.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 3 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 44 40 35 29 22 12 8 6 5 4 4 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -7. -15. -24. -32. -39. -46. -51. -55. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -5. -11. -16. -20. -23. -21. -16. -11. -8. -5. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -4. -9. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -15. -24. -33. -49. -60. -73. -79. -87. -95.-100.-102. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012014 AMANDA 05/26/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012014 AMANDA 05/26/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##