* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AMANDA EP012014 05/26/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 97 89 82 76 70 60 57 49 41 37 33 30 V (KT) LAND 105 97 89 82 76 70 60 57 49 41 37 33 30 V (KT) LGE mod 105 98 91 85 80 68 59 51 47 44 42 42 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 25 20 20 18 16 10 7 10 9 5 7 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 2 5 6 6 7 8 6 -4 -1 0 3 5 SHEAR DIR 178 175 185 197 208 196 223 190 183 198 143 132 120 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.6 27.5 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 151 149 145 141 139 137 136 134 135 134 133 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -51.4 -51.1 -51.2 -51.4 -51.6 -51.6 -51.9 -51.5 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 72 70 71 68 66 64 59 51 46 40 39 36 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 24 22 20 20 22 20 22 20 17 17 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR 63 62 65 49 46 52 48 55 49 48 39 39 47 200 MB DIV 113 97 75 67 87 105 53 51 3 -7 14 15 -2 700-850 TADV 1 3 1 2 4 2 2 1 0 0 0 1 2 LAND (KM) 992 970 949 931 913 856 821 776 727 714 722 711 682 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.6 14.0 14.5 14.9 15.5 15.8 16.2 16.6 16.7 16.6 16.7 17.0 LONG(DEG W) 111.7 111.8 111.9 112.1 112.2 112.3 112.2 112.1 111.9 111.8 111.7 111.7 111.8 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 5 4 2 2 2 2 0 0 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 43 39 34 29 23 15 12 9 6 6 7 6 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -7. -14. -20. -26. -31. -36. -39. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -8. -12. -14. -15. -13. -9. -6. -4. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -1. -4. -1. -5. -8. -8. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -16. -23. -29. -35. -45. -48. -56. -64. -68. -72. -75. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012014 AMANDA 05/26/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012014 AMANDA 05/26/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##