* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AMANDA EP012014 05/27/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 102 97 93 87 79 66 58 46 39 34 28 26 V (KT) LAND 105 102 97 93 87 79 66 58 46 39 34 28 26 V (KT) LGE mod 105 102 97 90 83 71 60 53 48 45 43 43 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 20 18 14 13 7 9 4 2 3 4 12 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 3 6 8 6 17 3 1 3 2 7 3 6 SHEAR DIR 192 203 209 200 210 173 214 223 253 111 89 89 101 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.6 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 148 145 145 143 143 139 138 136 134 134 137 137 136 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.6 -51.0 -51.0 -51.3 -50.8 -51.2 -50.9 -51.3 -51.1 -51.5 -51.4 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 6 5 6 6 6 7 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 68 67 67 68 67 63 56 53 48 44 43 40 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 22 22 24 22 24 22 22 18 16 15 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 45 42 44 47 42 44 43 55 37 42 39 47 45 200 MB DIV 76 69 70 54 57 53 -4 14 22 20 -6 16 -1 700-850 TADV 1 4 1 1 0 6 3 0 0 0 1 3 2 LAND (KM) 947 934 921 883 846 751 666 585 518 501 524 580 652 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.7 14.9 15.2 15.5 16.2 16.7 17.3 17.8 17.8 17.3 17.1 17.1 LONG(DEG W) 112.3 112.3 112.3 112.1 111.9 111.3 110.7 110.2 109.8 109.6 109.5 110.0 111.0 STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 3 4 4 4 3 4 2 1 2 3 5 HEAT CONTENT 27 24 22 20 17 12 10 8 5 5 8 9 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -10. -16. -23. -28. -33. -37. -40. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -8. -9. -8. -6. -3. 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. -2. -2. -7. -10. -11. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -12. -18. -26. -39. -47. -59. -66. -71. -77. -79. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012014 AMANDA 05/27/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012014 AMANDA 05/27/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##