* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AMANDA EP012014 05/27/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 82 76 71 68 60 54 46 41 35 30 25 21 V (KT) LAND 90 82 76 71 68 60 54 46 41 35 30 25 21 V (KT) LGE mod 90 82 74 68 63 53 47 43 41 41 41 40 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 20 15 17 11 9 6 3 3 8 11 14 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 7 2 8 7 1 2 0 0 3 2 9 SHEAR DIR 211 209 199 208 209 197 242 207 134 135 124 142 142 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.5 27.3 27.1 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 143 142 141 137 134 131 129 131 133 133 132 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.2 -51.2 -51.5 -51.3 -51.3 -51.3 -51.3 -51.5 -51.5 -51.8 -51.7 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 66 68 70 68 66 61 56 48 45 38 39 37 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 23 24 22 24 20 20 18 16 14 13 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 38 39 41 39 38 49 48 53 40 46 43 49 43 200 MB DIV 68 79 68 65 56 19 0 16 -8 -5 15 18 8 700-850 TADV 7 2 2 0 2 4 0 0 0 1 2 3 3 LAND (KM) 937 906 875 829 784 674 577 511 500 534 594 626 642 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.1 15.3 15.7 16.0 16.9 17.7 18.3 18.4 18.1 17.6 17.4 17.4 LONG(DEG W) 112.5 112.4 112.2 111.9 111.6 111.0 110.4 110.1 110.1 110.4 110.8 111.3 111.9 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 4 5 5 5 4 2 1 2 3 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 2 1 1 31 1 21 23 18 17 19 26 16 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -9. -14. -19. -22. -25. -28. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -5. -7. -8. -7. -4. -1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -9. -9. -7. -5. -4. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. -2. -2. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -14. -19. -22. -30. -36. -44. -49. -55. -60. -65. -69. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012014 AMANDA 05/27/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012014 AMANDA 05/27/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##