* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AMANDA EP012014 05/28/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 53 48 43 40 33 25 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 53 48 43 40 33 25 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 53 48 44 40 35 31 28 27 26 25 23 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 12 12 13 11 7 7 8 11 8 16 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 6 5 10 9 2 2 3 9 11 13 8 11 SHEAR DIR 193 192 188 193 193 205 204 140 118 118 101 89 112 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 144 143 140 138 135 134 135 135 135 137 138 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.7 -51.5 -51.3 -51.4 -51.5 -51.7 -51.7 -51.5 -51.6 -51.4 -52.0 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 67 67 63 60 57 48 42 37 33 30 30 32 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 20 20 19 20 18 15 13 10 9 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 41 39 36 45 48 55 52 41 36 43 49 44 43 200 MB DIV 55 54 40 23 43 7 35 25 10 -11 14 -3 -12 700-850 TADV 1 0 2 5 4 0 0 -1 0 4 5 3 2 LAND (KM) 965 928 886 841 797 722 671 662 692 708 699 729 760 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.9 15.2 15.6 15.9 16.5 16.9 17.0 16.7 16.6 16.6 16.4 16.2 LONG(DEG W) 112.5 112.4 112.2 112.0 111.7 111.2 110.9 110.9 111.0 111.1 111.0 111.2 111.5 STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 4 4 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 26 22 19 16 14 10 8 7 9 9 10 10 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -9. -12. -17. -18. -19. -20. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -12. -17. -20. -27. -35. -38. -43. -46. -48. -51. -51. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012014 AMANDA 05/28/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 67.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012014 AMANDA 05/28/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##