* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AMANDA EP012014 05/28/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 51 48 45 45 37 34 30 29 27 24 21 20 V (KT) LAND 55 51 48 45 45 37 34 30 29 27 24 21 20 V (KT) LGE mod 55 51 48 45 42 37 33 32 31 30 28 26 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 16 18 16 6 4 3 6 12 12 17 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 6 8 4 -3 2 1 5 10 11 9 10 7 SHEAR DIR 192 190 184 171 178 179 168 160 48 90 104 111 99 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.7 27.8 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 145 143 142 140 138 138 138 136 137 139 142 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.3 -50.8 -51.0 -51.3 -51.0 -51.6 -51.1 -51.7 -51.4 -51.8 -51.5 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 66 64 63 60 58 53 51 46 39 36 39 36 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 21 22 22 24 18 17 15 14 13 12 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 35 33 43 49 50 52 50 53 50 43 55 49 51 200 MB DIV 51 56 43 55 38 30 32 29 13 -1 4 7 -9 700-850 TADV 1 2 4 3 -1 0 -1 0 1 5 5 4 4 LAND (KM) 913 854 796 723 651 519 427 420 479 541 586 636 700 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.2 15.5 16.0 16.4 17.1 17.6 17.7 17.6 17.3 17.0 16.5 15.9 LONG(DEG W) 112.2 111.8 111.3 110.8 110.3 109.3 108.6 108.6 109.2 109.7 110.0 110.2 110.5 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 7 6 5 2 1 3 2 2 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 13 13 13 12 11 8 7 6 6 7 8 10 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. -2. -4. -7. -8. -9. -12. -13. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -10. -10. -18. -21. -25. -26. -28. -31. -34. -35. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012014 AMANDA 05/28/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012014 AMANDA 05/28/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##