* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AMANDA EP012014 05/28/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 52 49 46 45 39 36 32 32 30 27 26 24 V (KT) LAND 55 52 49 46 45 39 36 32 32 30 27 26 24 V (KT) LGE mod 55 52 49 46 43 37 33 31 30 28 26 23 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 19 16 14 8 8 7 8 4 12 12 13 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 4 4 -2 -3 -2 -1 5 11 8 6 14 14 SHEAR DIR 197 182 180 197 190 155 146 129 116 122 116 106 76 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 142 141 140 139 137 137 136 135 137 138 140 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.0 -51.4 -51.6 -51.2 -51.6 -51.2 -51.2 -51.3 -51.3 -51.4 -51.4 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 65 65 64 62 61 55 51 44 40 40 40 38 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 19 20 20 21 18 18 16 17 17 16 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR 35 50 54 53 60 52 51 61 56 63 58 58 42 200 MB DIV 55 51 59 41 33 7 45 19 -6 3 -10 6 4 700-850 TADV 3 0 2 0 -1 0 0 0 2 5 3 2 1 LAND (KM) 824 757 690 609 528 429 390 410 462 533 612 697 765 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.9 16.2 16.7 17.1 17.7 17.9 18.0 18.0 17.7 17.0 16.5 16.2 LONG(DEG W) 111.7 111.2 110.6 110.0 109.4 108.7 108.4 108.7 109.3 109.9 110.3 110.9 111.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 7 6 3 1 2 3 3 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 10 10 11 10 8 6 6 5 4 4 7 7 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 7 CX,CY: 4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. -1. -2. -4. -3. -2. -5. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -10. -16. -19. -23. -23. -25. -28. -29. -31. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012014 AMANDA 05/28/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012014 AMANDA 05/28/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##