* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AMANDA EP012014 05/29/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 39 37 33 29 24 22 20 22 18 15 15 V (KT) LAND 45 41 39 37 33 29 24 22 20 22 18 15 15 V (KT) LGE mod 45 41 37 34 32 28 25 23 22 21 20 19 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 18 18 15 13 8 6 4 9 9 18 19 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 3 -2 -3 0 -2 0 9 5 8 6 6 9 SHEAR DIR 195 188 186 179 167 181 151 138 93 77 92 103 98 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.7 27.8 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 139 139 139 138 137 137 136 136 138 139 138 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.3 -51.5 -51.3 -51.2 -51.8 -51.2 -51.6 -51.2 -51.6 -50.9 -51.8 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 64 63 62 61 58 54 47 44 38 39 38 38 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 19 20 20 18 17 14 14 13 15 13 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 37 48 52 58 53 50 62 62 56 65 55 50 39 200 MB DIV 37 46 29 24 36 41 22 9 4 10 -5 -13 -23 700-850 TADV 3 2 -1 -1 -3 -1 0 1 3 4 3 2 1 LAND (KM) 773 719 655 588 522 435 414 457 546 647 724 781 813 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.4 16.6 16.9 17.2 17.6 17.8 17.8 17.5 17.0 16.5 16.1 16.0 LONG(DEG W) 111.6 111.1 110.5 110.0 109.4 108.7 108.6 109.1 109.9 110.7 111.3 111.9 112.6 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 5 2 1 3 4 4 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 6 7 8 9 8 7 6 5 5 5 4 4 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 6 CX,CY: 3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. -1. -2. -5. -5. -7. -4. -7. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -8. -12. -16. -21. -23. -25. -23. -27. -30. -30. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012014 AMANDA 05/29/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012014 AMANDA 05/29/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##