* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AMANDA EP012014 05/29/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 26 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 26 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 25 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 19 18 15 12 10 9 12 11 13 12 14 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -3 -5 -5 -1 2 3 5 11 9 10 7 SHEAR DIR 168 167 161 173 170 143 103 105 109 110 97 94 71 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 141 140 140 140 140 141 141 139 140 139 138 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.7 -51.4 -51.6 -51.9 -51.4 -51.9 -51.4 -52.0 -51.6 -51.9 -51.5 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 8 7 8 7 7 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 65 62 62 57 53 50 51 45 42 39 39 37 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 13 12 11 10 10 9 8 6 5 5 6 850 MB ENV VOR 44 49 53 48 49 55 62 50 52 44 45 43 46 200 MB DIV 24 20 36 53 46 14 23 13 6 -15 -10 -10 -28 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -4 0 -1 0 0 0 3 1 2 1 1 LAND (KM) 655 603 551 527 504 470 479 512 583 625 655 690 725 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.4 16.6 16.7 16.8 16.8 16.8 16.7 16.5 16.4 16.2 16.2 16.2 LONG(DEG W) 110.2 109.8 109.3 109.1 108.9 108.5 108.6 108.9 109.6 110.0 110.2 110.6 111.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 2 2 0 1 3 2 2 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 12 12 11 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 12. 17. 21. 23. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -15. -17. -18. -19. -18. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -12. -15. -21. -25. -29. -30. -32. -34. -33. -28. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012014 AMANDA 05/29/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012014 AMANDA 05/29/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##