* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AMANDA EP012014 05/29/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 21 19 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 15 11 8 9 7 9 11 10 12 11 14 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -4 -3 -3 0 0 4 4 11 9 6 6 SHEAR DIR 162 154 156 150 148 132 112 112 99 92 66 69 60 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 143 142 142 142 142 143 144 145 146 147 147 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.6 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -51.6 -51.7 -51.7 -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 65 65 64 62 59 58 54 48 45 41 40 38 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 12 11 10 9 9 7 6 5 4 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 46 45 44 42 45 58 60 53 47 43 49 45 38 200 MB DIV 32 44 56 50 44 22 19 20 4 0 -22 -22 -25 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -1 -1 0 0 2 1 2 1 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 570 534 498 482 467 459 475 544 621 699 778 852 958 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.3 16.3 16.4 16.4 16.4 16.5 16.1 15.6 15.2 14.9 14.8 14.6 LONG(DEG W) 109.2 108.8 108.4 108.3 108.1 108.0 108.3 108.8 109.3 109.9 110.6 111.4 112.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 2 2 1 1 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 14 17 20 18 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 7 CX,CY: 7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 19. 24. 28. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -9. -9. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -12. -13. -14. -15. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -11. -15. -17. -19. -18. -18. -18. -15. -12. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012014 AMANDA 05/29/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 11.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012014 AMANDA 05/29/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##