* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932014 05/31/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 31 36 51 67 77 81 69 62 61 62 V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 31 36 51 67 77 81 69 62 61 62 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 25 29 36 45 56 68 77 85 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 17 18 13 12 14 7 11 12 11 5 5 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 3 0 0 -5 -5 -3 0 0 1 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 43 40 44 31 18 70 36 83 94 110 152 219 49 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.9 30.1 30.3 30.4 30.4 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 155 155 156 155 156 159 162 165 166 166 165 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -52.1 -52.5 -51.8 -51.3 -51.9 -50.9 -51.7 -50.5 -51.2 -50.4 -51.2 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 7 7 8 7 8 7 9 8 11 700-500 MB RH 85 85 86 85 84 86 82 80 77 75 75 70 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 10 10 11 14 18 20 20 11 5 5 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 23 26 28 30 39 45 45 67 72 66 45 44 200 MB DIV 137 143 130 113 128 114 121 100 138 87 54 -5 -6 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 -1 -5 -5 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 467 444 425 417 410 403 408 395 317 234 154 109 101 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.7 11.9 12.0 12.1 12.2 12.2 12.4 13.2 14.2 15.3 16.0 16.3 LONG(DEG W) 96.0 96.4 96.7 96.9 97.1 97.3 97.6 98.1 98.6 99.2 99.9 100.5 101.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 3 2 2 1 2 3 5 6 5 4 2 HEAT CONTENT 40 41 45 49 54 60 67 76 80 67 46 36 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 484 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 31. 36. 39. 43. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 13. 12. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. -16. -16. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 17. 17. 4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 31. 47. 57. 61. 49. 42. 41. 42. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932014 INVEST 05/31/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 45.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 130.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 46% is 3.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932014 INVEST 05/31/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##