* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932014 05/31/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 26 38 43 48 50 44 40 41 45 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 23 26 38 43 48 50 44 35 31 36 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 19 19 19 20 23 26 28 28 26 26 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 9 10 8 6 3 7 13 13 7 7 5 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 3 0 0 0 -2 -1 -1 -1 1 -2 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 30 13 13 20 43 67 144 147 167 172 151 159 131 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 153 153 153 155 156 157 159 160 160 159 161 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -51.9 -51.6 -51.9 -52.1 -51.3 -52.0 -51.0 -51.7 -50.7 -51.1 -50.5 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 6 6 7 6 9 6 9 8 11 9 700-500 MB RH 87 87 88 87 87 85 81 79 79 78 72 67 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 11 11 12 14 14 15 16 11 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 49 51 57 60 70 77 98 92 88 69 61 56 200 MB DIV 104 116 133 127 118 128 123 96 81 58 -3 -4 -5 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -1 -2 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -1 1 3 LAND (KM) 367 359 355 358 362 374 293 189 100 25 -10 -11 32 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.8 12.0 12.1 12.2 12.5 13.1 14.0 14.9 15.7 16.1 16.2 15.7 LONG(DEG W) 93.8 94.1 94.3 94.5 94.6 95.1 95.7 96.3 96.9 97.6 98.0 98.2 98.0 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 2 2 2 3 5 5 5 4 2 1 3 HEAT CONTENT 3 2 1 38 39 41 2 5 8 6 48 2 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 31. 35. 38. 41. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -14. -15. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 6. 8. 9. 2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 6. 18. 23. 28. 30. 24. 20. 21. 25. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932014 INVEST 05/31/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 119.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932014 INVEST 05/31/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##