* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932014 05/31/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 31 35 41 47 49 46 38 34 34 37 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 31 35 41 47 49 37 30 28 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 29 30 32 34 34 29 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 10 6 1 4 17 16 16 14 11 9 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 2 2 0 -2 0 -1 1 -4 -5 0 0 SHEAR DIR 21 14 31 67 136 148 170 179 190 164 164 143 125 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 28.4 27.7 27.5 28.0 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 152 153 153 154 154 154 146 137 136 142 149 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.7 -52.2 -52.4 -51.7 -51.8 -51.5 -51.4 -51.2 -51.1 -51.0 -51.0 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 87 88 88 88 87 83 81 79 79 77 74 73 70 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 11 13 13 15 14 12 7 5 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 43 56 63 65 64 73 90 97 93 76 73 83 99 200 MB DIV 121 133 115 93 99 115 115 99 88 92 39 52 49 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -2 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 0 2 4 5 LAND (KM) 367 353 339 321 303 261 195 73 -67 -122 -94 -124 -109 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.7 11.8 12.0 12.2 12.9 14.1 15.4 16.7 17.4 17.5 17.1 16.5 LONG(DEG W) 93.8 93.8 93.8 93.8 93.8 94.0 94.4 94.8 95.2 95.3 95.0 94.0 92.9 STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 1 2 3 5 7 7 5 2 3 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 31. 32. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -15. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 6. 3. -3. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 10. 16. 22. 24. 21. 13. 9. 9. 12. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932014 INVEST 05/31/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 112.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932014 INVEST 05/31/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##