* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932014 06/01/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 36 40 49 55 55 48 42 38 39 42 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 36 40 49 55 55 48 42 33 29 28 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 30 32 37 41 44 44 43 34 30 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 6 2 3 6 12 12 15 17 13 12 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 -2 -5 0 0 0 3 -1 5 -3 1 SHEAR DIR 27 40 54 47 335 142 176 179 159 191 191 180 168 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.5 29.2 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 153 153 155 155 156 157 158 158 156 154 152 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.2 -52.4 -51.7 -51.2 -52.0 -51.0 -51.9 -51.0 -51.5 -51.1 -51.4 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 8 6 8 6 9 7 11 9 13 700-500 MB RH 89 88 88 85 84 80 80 79 76 72 66 61 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 11 12 12 13 14 13 7 4 2 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 51 54 60 69 67 75 87 86 82 64 67 58 72 200 MB DIV 124 121 103 116 113 129 109 83 76 7 -8 -20 -15 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 4 LAND (KM) 365 367 370 377 384 328 234 147 69 20 -38 -41 -12 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.0 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.8 13.6 14.4 15.2 15.7 16.2 16.1 16.0 LONG(DEG W) 94.2 94.4 94.6 94.8 95.0 95.6 96.0 96.5 97.0 97.3 97.1 96.3 95.7 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 2 3 4 5 5 4 2 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 38 40 42 1 4 7 8 6 41 36 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 29. 32. 35. 37. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -14. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 6. 4. -4. -8. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 11. 15. 24. 30. 30. 23. 17. 13. 14. 17. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932014 INVEST 06/01/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 115.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 50% is 3.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932014 INVEST 06/01/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##