* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932014 06/01/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 39 44 54 61 63 59 54 51 50 50 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 39 44 54 61 63 59 54 51 50 50 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 32 34 40 45 50 52 53 53 55 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 12 6 4 4 8 11 10 11 10 10 7 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 -6 -4 -1 -3 1 0 1 -2 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 37 44 34 26 35 142 145 157 166 168 156 153 137 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 153 153 154 154 155 154 154 154 154 154 154 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -51.8 -51.3 -51.7 -51.5 -51.6 -51.5 -51.4 -51.3 -51.1 -51.2 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 88 88 85 83 81 80 78 80 78 78 75 70 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 11 11 12 11 13 13 12 10 7 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 26 40 51 57 60 74 74 70 53 58 48 43 56 200 MB DIV 100 106 105 124 135 119 110 101 78 56 27 20 11 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 461 446 430 413 396 336 289 255 233 200 166 147 137 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 38 36 33 32 30 29 29 33 35 32 32 27 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 421 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 32. 34. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -15. -15. -16. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 1. -2. -5. -6. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 19. 29. 36. 38. 34. 29. 26. 25. 25. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932014 INVEST 06/01/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 114.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 54% is 4.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 32% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932014 INVEST 06/01/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##