* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932014 06/01/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 35 39 45 50 51 52 51 52 54 58 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 35 39 45 50 51 52 51 52 54 46 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 30 33 36 37 39 40 43 47 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 4 4 5 8 12 11 12 7 8 6 5 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -5 -2 -2 -4 -3 -6 -4 -7 -6 -6 -6 SHEAR DIR 46 30 82 146 148 148 164 163 179 180 197 181 223 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 153 154 154 155 153 153 152 153 152 151 149 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.6 -51.9 -52.2 -51.6 -51.6 -51.5 -51.3 -51.1 -50.9 -50.9 -51.1 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 86 84 82 83 83 83 83 82 81 81 80 76 71 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 9 9 8 9 9 11 850 MB ENV VOR 54 57 58 63 68 79 80 74 60 56 62 58 69 200 MB DIV 89 98 109 97 83 114 85 97 70 67 75 57 51 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 357 357 357 347 338 301 231 186 155 145 116 58 -19 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 0 0 2 4 4 3 3 2 1 2 2 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 26 26 26 23 22 20 21 23 23 23 24 22 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 31. 34. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -16. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 20. 25. 26. 27. 26. 27. 29. 33. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932014 INVEST 06/01/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 59% is 4.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 32% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932014 INVEST 06/01/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##