* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932014 06/02/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 38 39 36 39 39 41 44 47 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 38 39 36 39 39 41 44 47 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 26 27 27 28 30 31 32 35 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 9 10 8 6 7 8 6 0 3 2 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 0 0 0 2 2 2 -1 0 -3 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 121 167 159 152 165 150 140 148 159 208 15 210 145 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 153 154 154 153 152 151 151 151 150 150 150 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -51.8 -51.2 -51.6 -51.3 -50.9 -50.8 -50.8 -50.8 -51.0 -51.1 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 8 7 7 7 9 8 8 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 83 83 83 84 83 82 82 80 82 82 82 79 77 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 12 13 13 13 13 11 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 77 78 81 81 78 79 73 62 69 81 95 106 200 MB DIV 83 78 80 91 111 94 83 89 65 70 48 27 40 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 0 -1 -2 0 -1 0 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 266 255 246 237 228 217 172 139 115 91 69 46 23 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 93.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 4 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 19 18 18 18 18 20 22 24 24 24 22 22 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 31. 34. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -14. -15. -16. -17. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 1. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 13. 14. 11. 14. 14. 16. 19. 22. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932014 INVEST 06/02/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932014 INVEST 06/02/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##