* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO EP022014 06/02/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 31 32 34 40 44 46 45 44 44 45 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 31 32 34 40 44 46 35 30 28 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 28 31 34 37 40 33 29 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 10 9 8 9 3 1 2 7 8 15 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 1 4 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -5 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 136 131 135 140 110 114 146 200 280 296 265 280 290 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.1 28.8 28.6 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 157 157 158 157 156 155 155 151 148 146 143 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.4 -51.8 -52.1 -51.3 -51.1 -51.0 -51.0 -51.1 -51.2 -51.2 -51.4 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 8 8 8 7 8 7 8 7 9 700-500 MB RH 82 85 83 82 83 83 83 85 85 83 80 78 73 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 12 10 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 72 79 80 84 81 79 70 60 67 73 82 82 85 200 MB DIV 66 97 100 110 99 83 84 87 78 51 40 65 8 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 -1 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 261 271 282 272 228 149 107 62 7 -25 -58 -80 -114 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 4 4 3 2 3 2 1 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 16 16 17 18 20 25 26 24 19 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 23. 29. 33. 35. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -14. -16. -16. -17. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 7. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 7. 9. 15. 19. 21. 20. 19. 19. 20. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022014 TWO 06/02/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 53% is 4.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022014 TWO 06/02/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##