* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO EP022014 06/03/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 36 38 42 46 49 51 51 51 53 56 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 36 38 42 46 49 51 51 44 35 30 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 35 37 39 41 44 46 50 48 37 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 10 9 8 5 3 3 6 3 4 5 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 4 6 5 -1 0 -4 -4 -7 -4 -6 -3 SHEAR DIR 165 157 128 105 125 190 289 292 322 294 331 351 3 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.1 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 156 156 156 156 154 153 153 154 153 151 148 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.9 -52.0 -51.1 -50.6 -51.6 -50.8 -51.4 -50.8 -51.7 -50.9 -51.7 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 8 6 9 7 9 7 9 7 10 700-500 MB RH 84 82 82 81 83 82 82 82 81 82 80 78 76 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 12 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 90 87 89 87 89 74 69 70 85 91 92 94 93 200 MB DIV 99 106 117 112 103 59 62 57 70 69 65 71 52 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 220 218 214 189 163 107 62 51 52 30 -3 -25 -35 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.9 14.1 14.4 14.6 15.1 15.5 15.6 15.6 15.8 16.1 16.3 16.4 LONG(DEG W) 94.2 94.5 94.7 94.8 94.9 94.9 94.8 94.8 94.9 94.9 94.8 94.8 94.9 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 0 0 1 1 1 0 HEAT CONTENT 16 18 20 21 24 26 24 24 24 19 14 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 21. 27. 30. 32. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -16. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 21. 21. 23. 26. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022014 TWO 06/03/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 107.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 70% is 5.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 39% is 4.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 26% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 21% is 4.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022014 TWO 06/03/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##