* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO EP022014 06/03/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 30 30 31 37 42 47 48 48 50 52 57 V (KT) LAND 30 31 30 30 31 37 42 38 32 30 28 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 34 35 35 35 31 29 28 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 9 7 7 5 7 7 9 10 10 8 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 8 10 5 0 -1 -5 -2 -2 -4 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 154 137 130 177 196 237 266 276 284 285 299 316 311 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 157 157 156 155 154 152 151 152 151 150 148 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -51.3 -50.9 -51.4 -51.4 -51.3 -51.3 -51.2 -51.3 -51.2 -51.1 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 7 8 7 8 8 9 8 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 82 82 82 83 82 80 81 79 79 78 77 75 73 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 9 7 8 9 12 13 14 14 14 15 15 17 850 MB ENV VOR 94 91 87 88 81 76 67 77 82 91 95 100 101 200 MB DIV 111 104 87 78 71 60 52 41 63 56 74 48 37 700-850 TADV 0 -1 1 8 4 2 1 0 1 3 3 1 2 LAND (KM) 195 178 155 126 94 49 14 -7 -6 -6 -29 -40 -61 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.3 14.6 14.9 15.2 15.6 15.9 16.1 16.1 16.1 16.3 16.4 16.6 LONG(DEG W) 94.3 94.4 94.5 94.6 94.7 94.6 94.5 94.5 94.6 94.6 94.5 94.5 94.6 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 18 20 22 24 25 23 20 14 14 14 34 33 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 21. 26. 29. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -1. -3. -4. -4. -1. 0. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. 0. 1. 7. 12. 17. 18. 18. 20. 22. 27. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022014 TWO 06/03/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022014 TWO 06/03/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##