* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO EP022014 06/03/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 31 34 37 38 39 38 37 38 39 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 27 27 27 27 27 27 29 30 31 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 27 27 27 27 27 27 29 28 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 7 4 4 7 8 6 8 12 12 13 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 6 6 1 -1 -2 -2 0 0 -2 -1 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 179 178 179 201 228 247 292 279 277 276 310 293 312 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.0 28.4 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 156 155 152 145 141 138 137 135 134 133 132 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.4 -50.9 -51.4 -51.9 -51.1 -51.7 -51.0 -51.9 -51.1 -51.9 -51.0 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 8 7 6 9 7 9 7 9 7 11 9 700-500 MB RH 82 83 84 83 82 81 80 79 80 78 77 71 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 84 83 87 76 63 44 37 50 54 54 56 60 71 200 MB DIV 78 88 87 84 69 69 40 68 37 54 41 46 9 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 1 3 3 3 1 2 LAND (KM) 163 113 57 12 -33 -115 -89 -67 -50 -7 21 30 30 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 15.0 15.5 15.9 16.3 17.0 17.4 17.6 17.8 18.2 18.4 18.8 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 94.3 94.4 94.4 94.3 94.2 93.9 94.1 94.1 93.9 93.9 94.2 94.7 95.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 5 4 4 3 2 1 2 2 2 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 23 24 22 15 38 0 0 0 0 1 3 5 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 27. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 8. 9. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022014 TWO 06/03/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 2.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022014 TWO 06/03/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##