* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BORIS EP022014 06/03/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 41 42 45 45 45 44 41 40 40 42 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 41 42 32 29 27 27 27 27 27 26 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 38 39 40 31 28 27 27 29 27 27 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 3 2 4 5 9 12 15 11 16 7 14 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 8 6 1 0 0 -2 0 -3 -3 -3 -1 -5 SHEAR DIR 191 208 167 213 236 262 283 282 293 289 316 285 290 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 28.9 28.3 27.9 27.4 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 155 155 154 150 144 140 135 132 132 132 134 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -50.8 -51.3 -51.8 -51.4 -51.4 -51.4 -51.5 -51.6 -51.5 -51.4 -51.2 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 6 8 7 8 7 8 8 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 83 84 84 82 82 82 81 81 79 76 72 67 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 70 74 67 58 56 39 42 49 53 60 61 79 93 200 MB DIV 90 99 88 64 47 48 40 48 28 34 32 37 8 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 2 0 2 2 2 2 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 124 97 66 36 5 -56 -122 -66 -11 15 19 7 -62 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.0 15.3 15.6 15.9 16.5 17.1 17.6 18.1 18.6 18.9 19.2 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 94.1 94.1 94.1 94.1 94.1 94.1 94.1 94.2 94.4 94.7 95.3 96.0 96.9 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 22 22 21 20 8 38 0 0 0 2 1 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 18. 21. 23. 23. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 10. 10. 10. 9. 6. 5. 5. 7. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022014 BORIS 06/03/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 66% is 5.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 37% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 25% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 17% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022014 BORIS 06/03/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##