* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BORIS EP022014 06/04/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 38 39 40 40 39 38 35 35 37 38 V (KT) LAND 35 36 31 30 29 27 27 27 29 26 26 25 26 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 31 29 28 27 27 27 28 26 24 25 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 7 7 7 11 13 16 15 15 17 14 11 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 0 -2 -1 -4 0 -1 -2 -1 0 0 N/A SHEAR DIR 241 238 230 239 252 271 267 283 266 287 277 306 N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.7 28.4 27.9 27.5 27.3 27.1 27.1 27.8 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 154 153 150 148 145 140 136 134 132 133 140 N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.3 -51.9 -51.4 -51.1 -51.7 -51.0 -51.9 -51.1 -52.0 -51.0 -51.7 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 8 9 6 9 7 10 7 12 9 N/A 700-500 MB RH 84 84 83 82 82 82 81 80 75 72 65 61 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 76 67 55 47 41 35 41 47 59 59 75 91 N/A 200 MB DIV 81 82 56 44 59 53 46 32 55 17 25 18 N/A 700-850 TADV 2 3 1 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 -1 0 N/A LAND (KM) 42 9 -23 -55 -88 -128 -64 -5 30 36 16 -123 N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.8 16.1 16.4 16.7 17.1 17.7 18.2 18.6 19.0 19.2 18.8 N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.0 94.0 93.9 93.9 93.8 93.8 93.8 94.0 94.5 95.1 95.9 97.2 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 4 5 6 N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 8 38 37 35 0 0 2 3 4 3 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 5 CX,CY: 1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 21. 22. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 0. 0. 2. 3. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022014 BORIS 06/04/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022014 BORIS 06/04/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##