* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BORIS EP022014 06/04/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 29 31 33 31 29 25 22 21 22 23 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 27 27 30 28 24 21 23 25 26 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 26 22 19 22 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 13 15 18 20 20 22 21 28 22 22 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 1 0 -2 -3 1 -1 -2 2 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 258 248 245 254 264 275 277 280 283 298 300 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.4 27.9 27.5 27.2 27.0 27.1 27.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 152 150 147 145 140 136 133 131 133 140 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.9 -51.5 -51.1 -51.4 -51.4 -51.4 -51.5 -51.5 -51.7 -51.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 8 9 8 8 7 8 8 10 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 84 83 82 82 81 80 80 78 74 68 65 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 7 9 11 10 10 9 9 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 62 49 42 38 20 29 28 27 42 42 82 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 73 57 41 49 49 37 41 25 32 -4 28 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 4 4 2 0 0 0 1 0 2 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) -13 -42 -72 -102 -131 -66 3 45 46 28 -117 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.3 16.5 16.8 17.1 17.7 18.3 18.8 19.1 19.4 18.9 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 93.9 93.8 93.7 93.7 93.7 93.7 93.9 94.5 95.1 95.9 97.2 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 4 5 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 39 39 35 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 5 CX,CY: 1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 18. 21. 23. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -6. -9. -11. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. 1. 3. 1. -1. -5. -8. -9. -8. -7. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022014 BORIS 06/04/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022014 BORIS 06/04/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##