* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902014 06/04/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 21 21 19 19 17 18 18 21 26 29 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 21 21 19 20 24 26 26 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 19 19 18 18 24 26 26 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 21 28 25 23 23 24 25 21 17 11 7 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 0 0 0 -1 0 1 3 5 6 10 SHEAR DIR 248 245 250 268 276 285 303 294 306 301 314 280 307 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.2 27.8 28.4 28.8 29.3 29.8 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 122 122 122 121 121 121 125 132 141 147 155 164 168 ADJ. POT. INT. 108 109 108 107 107 108 112 119 127 133 141 150 155 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.3 -51.1 -51.4 -51.6 -51.1 -51.7 -51.5 -51.9 -51.4 -51.9 -51.3 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 10 8 8 10 9 12 10 14 11 13 10 700-500 MB RH 80 79 78 76 74 71 69 63 60 54 52 51 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 8 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 19 14 15 3 4 16 33 39 42 42 54 48 29 200 MB DIV 39 36 37 28 10 24 10 -5 0 -10 -5 -19 -16 700-850 TADV 2 1 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 -1 -1 -1 0 2 LAND (KM) 61 76 101 108 104 52 -37 -149 -255 -275 -233 -132 -21 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.2 19.5 19.7 19.8 20.0 20.0 20.1 20.1 20.2 20.1 19.9 19.5 LONG(DEG W) 94.4 94.6 94.7 95.0 95.3 96.0 97.0 98.3 99.5 100.8 102.1 103.4 104.8 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 3 3 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 7 6 8 7 8 10 11 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 21. 25. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. -3. -6. -9. -10. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -1. -3. -2. -2. 1. 6. 9. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902014 INVEST 06/04/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 19.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902014 INVEST 06/04/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902014 INVEST 06/04/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)