* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BORIS EP022014 06/04/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 21 20 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 26 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 26 26 25 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 15 21 23 24 24 29 31 34 30 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 -1 -2 0 -2 -1 0 1 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 248 249 253 266 273 276 294 284 301 293 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.6 28.2 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.0 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 148 144 140 138 135 132 131 131 132 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.4 -51.1 -51.5 -51.7 -51.2 -52.2 -51.7 -52.2 -51.5 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 9 8 7 9 7 9 7 11 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 82 81 81 81 80 76 76 71 67 65 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 8 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 43 32 5 0 9 17 25 26 59 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 59 49 61 47 25 41 33 27 10 5 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 3 1 0 0 -3 -2 -1 -4 2 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -39 -94 -107 -61 -15 95 154 164 172 33 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.8 17.3 17.8 18.2 19.2 19.7 20.0 20.2 19.5 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.0 93.9 93.8 93.7 93.6 93.7 94.0 94.4 94.8 95.9 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 4 2 2 4 6 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 39 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 13. 18. 22. 25. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -6. -12. -16. -18. -19. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -6. -9. -11. -15. -18. -23. -24. -23. -21. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022014 BORIS 06/04/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022014 BORIS 06/04/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##