* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902014 06/04/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 23 22 21 21 22 23 25 28 30 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 23 22 23 26 26 27 27 27 31 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 19 19 18 21 25 26 27 27 27 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 28 25 23 22 21 20 24 19 16 10 7 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 7 5 11 11 SHEAR DIR 250 255 267 278 280 294 300 300 304 313 301 289 263 SST (C) 27.3 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.5 27.9 28.3 28.8 29.1 29.6 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 124 123 121 121 122 123 129 134 139 147 152 161 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 110 108 108 108 110 116 120 126 133 137 146 141 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.0 -51.4 -51.7 -51.6 -51.5 -51.6 -51.5 -51.6 -51.4 -51.7 -51.4 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 8 9 9 10 11 12 12 13 11 11 700-500 MB RH 81 79 78 76 75 70 65 63 57 52 48 46 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 7 8 9 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 15 4 4 5 25 17 36 29 51 47 52 22 200 MB DIV 35 43 31 20 44 32 -2 12 3 0 -8 -10 11 700-850 TADV 2 2 -2 -1 -1 -6 -2 -3 -3 -7 -2 -5 2 LAND (KM) 45 56 84 94 77 13 -83 -183 -286 -320 -218 -70 53 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.1 19.4 19.6 19.8 20.1 20.3 20.6 20.8 20.9 21.0 20.8 20.5 LONG(DEG W) 94.4 94.7 94.9 95.3 95.6 96.5 97.7 99.0 100.3 101.8 103.1 104.6 106.2 STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 5 6 5 7 8 11 11 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 16. 21. 26. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -3. -6. -9. -9. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902014 INVEST 06/04/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902014 INVEST 06/04/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902014 INVEST 06/04/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED