* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902014 06/05/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 35 36 35 34 32 30 30 30 31 31 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 35 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 30 30 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 33 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 21 24 24 27 29 26 26 21 20 15 11 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 8 7 13 15 18 SHEAR DIR 282 276 284 295 303 300 307 298 307 298 322 285 280 SST (C) 27.2 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.4 27.7 28.1 28.5 28.8 29.4 28.9 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 123 122 122 122 124 128 131 137 142 147 158 150 118 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 109 109 109 111 115 118 123 127 131 143 139 108 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.7 -51.4 -51.8 -52.0 -51.6 -52.2 -51.5 -52.1 -51.5 -52.0 -51.4 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 10 9 8 12 10 14 11 15 10 11 6 700-500 MB RH 79 79 76 74 72 67 61 54 53 50 49 47 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 12 16 27 28 23 30 37 38 38 43 22 -1 200 MB DIV 25 33 44 42 18 4 5 -11 10 -17 -14 -17 0 700-850 TADV 2 -2 -3 -4 -3 1 0 -2 -4 -4 -4 0 1 LAND (KM) 69 86 107 74 40 -57 -144 -272 -370 -241 -85 98 198 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.4 19.7 19.9 20.1 20.6 21.1 21.5 21.8 21.9 21.7 21.4 21.5 LONG(DEG W) 94.5 94.9 95.2 95.7 96.2 97.6 98.9 100.4 101.7 103.0 104.5 106.5 108.8 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 5 6 7 7 7 6 7 8 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 7 6 7 8 11 14 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 17. 20. 22. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -7. -10. -12. -13. -12. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902014 INVEST 06/05/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902014 INVEST 06/05/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902014 INVEST 06/05/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)