* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902014 06/05/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 31 32 31 32 29 30 35 38 42 42 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 31 32 28 27 27 27 27 31 35 35 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 30 27 27 27 27 27 31 34 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 25 23 24 23 25 22 21 14 8 2 7 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 1 0 2 5 4 7 9 8 4 SHEAR DIR 284 290 296 297 294 301 305 312 315 335 250 103 121 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.5 28.1 28.8 29.5 30.3 30.3 29.1 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 122 122 122 122 123 128 136 147 159 171 171 154 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 107 109 109 110 111 116 123 134 146 164 168 147 133 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.4 -51.8 -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -51.4 -51.7 -51.5 -51.5 -51.3 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 8 10 10 11 11 12 11 10 8 6 700-500 MB RH 80 78 75 74 73 70 64 61 59 61 57 54 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 8 8 7 8 6 4 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 19 15 22 36 48 48 62 60 73 55 35 31 200 MB DIV 41 50 38 11 13 30 17 21 17 16 26 19 12 700-850 TADV 2 -1 -2 -1 1 1 0 -4 -2 -5 1 3 3 LAND (KM) 68 68 78 53 6 -90 -196 -276 -174 -83 78 276 501 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.2 19.4 19.5 19.5 19.7 19.9 19.7 19.5 19.1 18.4 17.4 16.6 LONG(DEG W) 94.4 94.8 95.1 95.7 96.2 97.4 98.7 100.0 101.5 103.1 104.7 106.6 108.7 STM SPEED (KT) 1 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 10 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 7 6 5 5 9 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):165/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 476 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 25. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -5. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. 0. 5. 8. 12. 12. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902014 INVEST 06/05/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902014 INVEST 06/05/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902014 INVEST 06/05/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED