* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902014 06/06/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 30 30 28 26 27 27 27 28 28 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 30 27 27 27 27 27 27 30 29 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 29 29 26 26 27 27 27 27 30 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 26 28 27 32 28 29 27 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 0 0 1 2 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 287 293 296 297 295 312 307 322 299 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.4 27.7 28.2 28.6 29.0 29.7 29.7 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 123 122 122 122 123 127 131 138 143 150 163 164 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 108 110 110 110 111 114 117 124 128 134 149 153 131 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.8 -52.2 -51.9 -51.8 -52.3 -51.6 -52.0 -51.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 10 11 9 14 11 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 76 75 73 71 66 57 53 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 7 6 6 7 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 4 10 20 27 35 50 52 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 45 35 22 12 29 17 -6 3 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 -3 -3 2 0 0 -3 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 76 86 99 63 27 -52 -151 -269 -358 -248 -135 41 236 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.4 19.7 20.0 20.2 20.7 21.0 21.2 21.2 21.1 20.5 19.6 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 94.4 94.9 95.3 95.9 96.4 97.6 98.9 100.3 101.6 102.8 104.0 105.6 107.5 STM SPEED (KT) 2 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 7 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 7 6 9 10 11 14 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 503 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 17. 20. 23. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -9. -12. -16. -19. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902014 INVEST 06/06/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902014 INVEST 06/06/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902014 INVEST 06/06/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED