* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902014 06/07/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 30 30 27 24 25 24 24 25 24 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 30 29 29 26 29 28 27 30 33 35 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 3 1 1 4 5 2 6 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 296 298 303 309 300 317 305 312 291 292 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 27.3 27.5 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.4 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 123 126 128 132 135 136 134 130 128 126 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 110 113 116 120 121 120 117 114 112 110 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -52.3 -52.0 -51.4 -51.9 -51.4 -52.2 -51.7 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 10 12 10 14 11 16 13 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 75 73 68 65 59 53 52 48 46 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 8 7 6 7 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 42 40 40 56 66 63 55 47 38 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 33 16 14 18 10 1 22 6 -2 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 3 3 1 2 0 -2 -1 -4 -7 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -6 -51 -95 -135 -175 -232 -211 -167 -131 -78 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 6 6 3 2 3 3 4 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 5 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 13. 17. 19. 21. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -10. -14. -20. -22. -24. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -6. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902014 INVEST 06/07/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 19.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902014 INVEST 06/07/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902014 INVEST 06/07/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED