* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942014 06/07/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 38 43 51 61 67 74 78 85 86 90 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 38 43 51 61 67 74 78 85 86 90 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 33 35 41 47 54 61 68 75 80 83 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 14 16 16 12 7 8 8 8 3 4 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 3 1 2 -4 -2 -3 -2 -3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 54 65 46 42 41 44 33 47 16 20 22 75 83 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.4 28.9 28.5 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 161 162 162 162 161 160 160 157 152 148 145 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.2 -51.6 -51.9 -51.5 -51.5 -51.5 -51.4 -51.4 -51.0 -50.9 -50.9 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 83 82 81 81 77 72 66 64 62 61 56 53 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 11 13 18 19 23 850 MB ENV VOR 38 40 37 35 32 37 25 35 25 16 18 23 28 200 MB DIV 97 112 74 67 87 83 60 83 49 44 49 42 64 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 -2 -2 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 394 372 349 335 321 298 296 334 346 407 477 543 621 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.5 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.7 15.0 15.0 15.1 15.1 15.2 15.2 15.3 LONG(DEG W) 100.3 100.6 100.9 101.2 101.4 101.8 102.4 103.1 104.0 105.2 106.5 107.7 109.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 4 5 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 75 84 89 86 76 55 38 35 42 51 40 31 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 31. 34. 37. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 10. 9. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -15. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 2. 2. 6. 9. 15. 17. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 18. 26. 36. 42. 49. 53. 60. 61. 65. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942014 INVEST 06/07/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 82.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 86.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 58% is 4.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 33% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 26% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 17% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942014 INVEST 06/07/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##