* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942014 06/08/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 39 44 53 62 70 75 78 81 85 85 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 39 44 53 62 70 75 78 81 85 85 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 32 35 41 48 57 66 75 82 85 84 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 14 11 10 7 9 6 9 2 1 4 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 2 1 0 0 -3 -4 -4 -2 -1 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 45 43 55 61 53 42 51 68 46 29 12 129 139 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.5 29.0 28.5 28.1 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 162 162 162 161 161 160 158 153 148 144 139 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.8 -52.1 -51.7 -51.2 -51.9 -51.2 -52.0 -51.2 -51.6 -51.2 -51.5 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 10 9 11 10 9 8 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 83 81 81 78 76 72 65 64 60 57 50 49 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 10 13 15 18 850 MB ENV VOR 36 30 33 36 41 28 35 31 28 18 22 30 35 200 MB DIV 118 64 57 71 79 50 79 55 36 24 18 26 25 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -2 -2 0 LAND (KM) 387 362 338 324 309 305 310 336 381 446 507 607 729 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.7 14.0 14.3 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.1 15.2 15.4 15.6 15.8 16.0 LONG(DEG W) 100.6 100.9 101.1 101.4 101.6 102.2 102.8 103.7 104.9 106.3 107.7 109.3 110.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 3 3 3 4 5 6 7 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 83 88 87 78 66 44 34 38 51 39 27 22 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 30. 34. 36. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 19. 28. 37. 45. 50. 53. 56. 60. 60. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942014 INVEST 06/08/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 80.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 70% is 5.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 47% is 5.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 33% is 5.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 26% is 6.1 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942014 INVEST 06/08/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##