* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942014 06/08/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 38 46 53 58 60 63 62 63 60 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 38 46 53 58 60 63 62 63 60 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 29 32 36 41 45 48 50 52 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 17 15 14 12 8 7 9 11 7 4 5 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 1 0 1 -3 0 0 0 0 2 3 4 SHEAR DIR 45 45 49 45 35 22 12 354 359 340 315 274 222 SST (C) 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.5 28.9 28.1 27.4 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 161 163 162 163 163 163 163 162 159 153 145 138 132 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.2 -51.9 -51.3 -51.6 -51.8 -51.4 -51.6 -51.4 -51.6 -51.2 -51.4 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 9 7 7 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 82 81 79 77 74 66 66 64 64 57 50 47 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 7 7 6 7 7 7 8 10 10 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR 25 25 30 34 30 20 28 13 1 0 14 19 18 200 MB DIV 73 69 60 66 64 80 102 46 29 -4 14 16 21 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -3 -3 -3 -2 0 LAND (KM) 375 344 312 288 264 246 267 276 340 413 516 669 712 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.9 14.3 14.6 14.9 15.3 15.5 15.7 15.8 16.1 16.5 16.8 17.1 LONG(DEG W) 100.8 101.0 101.2 101.4 101.5 102.0 102.7 103.8 105.2 106.9 108.8 110.8 112.9 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 6 8 9 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 88 88 81 69 57 39 32 33 40 26 20 11 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 31. 34. 37. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 7. 7. 10. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 21. 28. 33. 35. 38. 37. 38. 35. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942014 INVEST 06/08/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 76.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942014 INVEST 06/08/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##