* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942014 06/08/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 33 36 43 51 56 60 59 59 58 54 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 33 36 43 51 56 60 59 59 58 54 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 33 37 41 46 48 48 46 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 13 12 12 12 9 5 8 3 1 6 12 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 1 2 0 2 0 0 3 3 2 1 2 SHEAR DIR 52 54 47 37 34 33 11 28 355 262 216 196 210 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.6 29.1 28.5 27.8 27.2 26.5 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 163 162 163 162 162 162 159 155 149 142 136 129 121 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.8 -51.4 -51.6 -52.0 -51.4 -52.0 -51.3 -51.6 -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 10 10 11 9 8 7 6 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 79 75 72 68 65 60 59 56 54 47 46 41 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 6 7 9 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 31 37 45 35 27 36 18 5 9 5 11 13 9 200 MB DIV 48 32 41 43 32 74 50 32 4 16 7 8 0 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -4 0 -1 0 4 5 LAND (KM) 295 281 266 269 276 287 336 423 493 607 711 756 883 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.9 15.1 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.5 15.6 15.9 16.4 16.7 17.1 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 101.5 101.8 102.0 102.4 102.7 103.5 104.6 106.2 107.9 109.8 111.7 113.8 115.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 4 4 4 5 6 8 9 9 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 65 52 41 34 31 33 45 39 24 20 11 3 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 30. 33. 35. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 18. 26. 31. 35. 34. 34. 33. 29. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942014 INVEST 06/08/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 2.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942014 INVEST 06/08/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##