* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942014 06/08/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 40 48 51 55 53 53 48 44 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 40 48 51 55 53 53 48 44 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 33 37 42 46 47 46 42 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 13 11 10 7 8 7 1 4 12 16 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 1 0 0 -1 1 3 5 5 2 3 2 SHEAR DIR 56 59 42 34 39 64 23 42 338 201 210 218 246 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.2 28.6 27.9 27.2 26.6 25.6 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 163 161 162 161 161 160 156 150 143 136 130 120 113 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.4 -51.6 -52.0 -51.8 -51.6 -51.6 -51.4 -51.5 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 7 5 4 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 73 69 67 65 60 59 55 52 48 46 45 38 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 4 5 3 6 6 9 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 40 48 44 36 32 38 14 11 15 12 20 13 7 200 MB DIV 21 30 50 39 45 90 30 10 0 7 1 -1 -11 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 -3 -3 0 -2 1 4 7 LAND (KM) 258 264 266 265 269 311 393 473 596 708 766 890 1052 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.5 15.6 15.7 15.7 15.7 15.7 15.9 16.3 16.7 17.0 17.3 17.3 LONG(DEG W) 102.4 102.7 102.9 103.3 103.6 104.5 105.9 107.6 109.6 111.6 113.8 116.1 118.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 3 3 3 4 5 8 9 10 10 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 32 31 30 30 32 41 40 24 21 12 3 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 29. 32. 33. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 5. 3. 2. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -1. -1. 3. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 15. 23. 26. 30. 28. 28. 23. 19. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942014 INVEST 06/08/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942014 INVEST 06/08/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##