* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942014 06/09/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 41 45 49 49 47 43 37 32 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 41 45 49 49 47 43 37 32 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 34 37 40 40 38 33 28 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 10 7 11 6 8 1 7 14 20 23 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 1 0 3 7 10 7 5 3 8 4 SHEAR DIR 61 37 25 16 33 14 10 300 215 220 227 240 250 SST (C) 30.2 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.5 28.6 27.9 27.0 26.2 25.0 24.0 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 165 163 163 163 162 159 150 143 134 126 113 103 101 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.7 -52.1 -51.9 -51.4 -51.9 -51.4 -51.7 -51.8 -52.0 -52.3 -52.8 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 11 9 8 6 4 2 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 69 64 62 58 58 55 49 50 47 47 42 38 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 7 8 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 60 56 45 40 48 27 16 11 5 8 4 -11 -14 200 MB DIV 43 48 35 24 49 33 3 -3 28 19 13 -1 1 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 0 -3 0 4 7 11 LAND (KM) 219 216 204 221 247 330 432 553 641 664 760 858 986 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.1 16.2 16.2 16.2 16.2 16.3 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.0 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 102.5 102.9 103.2 103.7 104.2 105.6 107.5 109.4 111.5 113.5 115.6 117.8 119.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 5 6 8 9 10 10 10 10 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 28 26 26 27 30 33 22 19 9 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 28. 31. 31. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 16. 20. 24. 24. 22. 18. 12. 7. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942014 INVEST 06/09/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942014 INVEST 06/09/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##