* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942014 06/09/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 28 31 38 46 51 53 50 46 44 38 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 28 31 38 46 51 53 50 46 44 38 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 29 32 35 37 38 36 32 27 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 10 10 5 6 7 4 9 15 21 20 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -1 0 3 3 2 3 3 3 1 5 SHEAR DIR 9 18 30 37 22 352 332 270 248 232 229 222 262 SST (C) 30.2 30.2 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.6 29.0 28.2 27.2 26.1 24.9 24.1 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 164 164 164 160 154 146 136 125 112 103 102 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.0 -51.5 -51.7 -52.0 -51.3 -51.6 -51.5 -51.7 -51.7 -52.0 -51.7 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 12 11 10 9 7 6 4 3 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 67 61 60 58 57 52 51 46 48 42 42 39 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 6 8 10 11 13 13 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR 31 32 35 40 35 12 5 6 12 3 5 5 4 200 MB DIV 28 39 50 64 53 37 11 17 0 -4 12 25 -24 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -1 -3 -2 -2 0 4 5 8 7 LAND (KM) 206 216 202 216 243 329 421 565 610 665 803 902 1045 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.3 16.5 16.8 17.2 17.7 18.3 18.6 18.8 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 102.3 102.7 103.1 103.7 104.3 106.0 107.9 109.9 111.9 114.1 116.3 118.2 120.1 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 6 7 9 9 10 10 11 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 31 30 28 28 29 30 20 16 5 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 7. 15. 23. 29. 31. 32. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 6. 5. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 14. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 6. 13. 21. 26. 28. 25. 21. 19. 13. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942014 INVEST 06/09/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942014 INVEST 06/09/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##