* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THREE EP032014 06/09/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 43 49 58 65 68 71 67 65 59 55 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 43 49 58 65 68 71 67 65 59 55 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 39 42 48 52 55 56 54 50 45 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 10 8 8 10 6 6 9 12 14 17 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 -3 -4 0 -1 -1 0 0 4 2 3 1 SHEAR DIR 15 31 29 19 3 353 336 280 239 220 201 214 237 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.2 28.6 27.8 27.0 26.2 25.4 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 163 164 164 163 163 161 156 150 141 133 124 116 106 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.4 -51.8 -52.1 -51.7 -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -51.4 -51.5 -51.1 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 10 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 64 63 62 59 58 57 54 52 48 46 46 43 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 6 7 9 10 11 12 15 16 18 16 17 850 MB ENV VOR 12 22 25 26 19 0 -2 6 4 6 2 -8 -3 200 MB DIV 30 58 73 56 46 30 12 15 11 12 16 -13 -5 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -2 -4 -4 -5 0 1 3 3 6 LAND (KM) 227 249 267 262 277 330 386 491 591 572 609 690 767 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 6 7 6 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 39 33 31 32 35 34 22 19 12 3 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 22. 27. 29. 30. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 14. 15. 18. 16. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 19. 28. 35. 38. 41. 37. 35. 29. 25. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032014 THREE 06/09/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 64% is 4.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 39% is 4.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 28% is 4.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 26% is 6.4 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032014 THREE 06/09/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##